A NeW industrial revolution Will be Powered by Cells
Figure 1: This graph visualizes the tension between global population growth and per-person resource availability over time. Left Y-axis (Blue): World population in billions (logarithmic scale). Data compiled from historical estimates and modern figures (e.g., United Nations World Population Prospects). Smoothed using cubic interpolation to preserve realistic exponential growth. Right Y-axis (Red): Natural resources available per person (relative index). Calculated as total usable natural resource supply divided by global population. Resource availability per person is anchored in biocapacity data from 1960 onward (Global Footprint Network), and is extended backwards to reconstruct a pre-1960 estimate based on available evidence. Biocapacity is measured in global hectares (gha) and includes cropland, pastures, forests, fishing grounds, and other resources. The Global Footprint Network’s biocapacity data was adjusted using publicly available population figures for per-person normalization. The X axis denotes chapter titles and does not imply causality.
Many people believe that we are living in a time of unparalleled abundance.
And viewed through one lens, this is true. Relative to all other times in history, we have more energy, more food, more buildings, more cars, more stuff. But this is a very anthropocentric view. When viewed through a different lens, one where humans exist as a part of an ecosystem, the picture is very different. Global biocapacity data clearly shows that our natural resources per capita are on a steady decline. We are heading towards a breaking point.
If we study wars throughout the course of history, there is a common thread between all of them. Humans are competitive animals, and as long as we remain constrained within finite and dwindling resources, we will fight each other for those resources. Given modern weaponry, those fights are likely to lead to our extinction. As a reactive species, we tend to focus on addressing the symptoms (ie stopping the tragic battles), but we must also address the underlying cause. So what can we do?
It is both unwise and unlikely that we would take the steps needed to intentionally reduce the number of humans, or make humans less competitive (e.g gene editing all human embryos). Forcing humans to live a less resource intensive life will also not work, as this conflicts with our primal desire for a free, full and exciting life. So our only viable option to stop otherwise inevitable fighting is to find a way to increase the resources per person at our disposal. Humans are driven by incentives and we can use that to our advantage. Why would we fight each other over scraps when unthinkable abundance is attainable for those who work together. But this is easier said than done.
What is a credible path for increasing the resources available per person, without reducing the number of people or our lifestyles? Answering that question is the central theme that ties together all of my work, which ranges from starting and running Prolific Machines (the world's first Optogenetic Biomanufacturing Platform) and writing books like The Everything Machine (non-fiction), and Ziad (fiction). Figure 1 (taken from The Everything Machine) captures our precarious situation.
There is a deeper question beneath all of this: why? Why should we go to all this effort to make humanity survive and thrive? Can’t we just enjoy our time on Earth for as long as we can and be done with it? My experience has been that this is a popular position, and I don’t agree with it. The reason why I do what I do is because life is beautiful, and it’s worth preserving. If you agree with this, then we need to think beyond ourselves to future generations. We must make sure we give them the same opportunity to enjoy life —a crazy experience which we have had the luck and privilege to indulge in. Maybe we won’t be successful, but at least we should try. It’s worth noting the caveat in this argument – which is that the heat death of the universe is coming for us eventually, no matter what we do. So even if we solve climate change, space colonization, and address the myriad other ways we may become extinct, there will still be an end. But – and it’s a big but – the number of generations that get to enjoy the beauty of life could be immensely increased or decreased by the decisions we make today. Thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands, of future generations will be able to trace their existence back to what you and I do today. We will never know them, but that does not make their experience of life any less important than our own. Life is worth fighting for.
About Deniz Kent, phd
Featured in TIME as having developed one of the top inventions of 2024, Dr. Deniz Kent is Co-Founder and CEO of Prolific Machines, a synthetic biology company rewiring the foundations of modern industry.
Prolific Machines is the world’s first optogenetic biomanufacturing platform, a breakthrough enabling cells to make everything from food to medicines with unprecedented precision.
Dr. Kent’s background is in stem cell biology and immunology, driven by a deep love and respect for science and innovation. He started his career by developing cell-based therapies to cure cancer. Next he moved into the pharmaceutical industry where he worked on a single-dose cure for asthma. He then pursued his masters followed by his PhD in stem cell biology. While doing research in one of the best stem cell biology labs in the world at King’s College London, Dr. Kent discovered a new liver stem cell (Kent & Segal et al, Nature Communications), and identified a new treatment for Alpha-1 Antitrypsin Deficiency (Kent et al, Hepatology). In turn, he played major roles in many other scientific breakthroughs, for instance Blackford et al, Stem Cells Translational Medicine. In 2019 he conceived of the idea that led to Prolific Machines - building a new toolkit to control cells with light - and has spent the last 6 years leading the company from idea to one of the most disruptive innovations in biotech history.
